SEPTEMBER 05, 2008 - The Fed will not raise rates after today's employment report that showed unemployment rising to 6.1% - there will be a call for them to lower rates now. Would continue buying recommended banks and brokers. The July 15 lows of banking and consumer stocks will hold - commodity stocks will go lower but think natural gas has bottomed. It may be getting time to buy the semis (SOX) that hit a five year low today. Oil has not bottomed yet.
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- with Bernanke ready to stop raising rates stocks of cos with good earnings will do well - AA reports July 10th - will "hammer" earnings - stock goes straight up
32.84
new
07/11/06
- stock dropped after earnings report - swap into AL
- looks like a takeover target for private equity - stock price down in selloff after rumors - worth buying on fundamentals alone (China will become importer vs exporter & prices will rise) - lightning may be ready to strike - BHP & RIO may be looking - could bid as much as 40.68/sh - could be worth 49 if broken up
- expect a good qtr on Monday - will not be oublic next year - stay with it
41.35
+26.26
07/06/07
- could see takeover activity next week
41.66
+27.21
07/10/07
- believe it will be bought by BHP Billiton (BHP)
41.66
+27.21
07/27/07
- still think it can get a bid - worth 35 on earnings - got too greedy on stock - shoud have sold in the mid-40's
37.41
+14.23
03/03/08
- like FCX more now
38.32
+17.01
05/05/08
- beverage can makers are switching from high priced steel to aluminum - steel now has 50% of the market providing plenty of potential to switch - automakers are using more aluminum in cars every year because its lighter & saves energy - same in aerospace - the Chinese are running short of supply taking excess inventory off the market - this will send prices higher - think BHP could be a suitor at a price of 50-64/sh - has 135M shares left in its buyback program (16% of shares) - trades at only 10x earnings vs 21% growth
36.89
+12.64
06/24/08
- want to buy it here - think earnings will be ok in two weeks
36.89
+12.64
07/23/08
- someone will make a bid for them
32.73
-0.06
07/30/08
- natural gas costs are dropping - the Chinese are not exporting now - stock is cheap
- sell 1/4 position the day before the iPhone 3G announcement (June 9th) - 1/4 the morning of the day of the announcement & another 1/4 the afternoon of the day of the announcement - hold the remaing 25%
186.43
+295.40
06/04/08
- stay with it until the 3G iPhone announcement on June 9th
185.19
+292.77
06/10/08
- stay long
185.64
+293.72
06/16/08
- a hold now until we see more data
176.84
+275.06
06/25/08
- like it
177.39
+276.22
07/09/08
- you should only have a quarter position in the stock
- Swiss power engineering & automation tech co may be the single best pure play on infrastructure around the world - don't have to worry about Bernanke raising rates - end markets in a wild bull market - had better than expected qtr - Chinese business incredibly strong - has tons of cash - looking for acquisitions - either they buy something or will return cash to the stockholders - has doubled but is still uunderestimated by the Street
24.39
+211.49
11/29/07
- am a buyer
28.67
+266.16
02/29/08
- not worried that the CEO quit - great infrastructure play
- a dividend payer that can make you money - automobile seller has 3.3% yield - earnings growth will allow increases in dividend - just raised guidance
- if the Iran situation goes awry there will be a move into defensive stocks because of recession fears - this is the only drug co that consistently beats the numbers - cheap - grows at 14% & sells at only 16x earnings - is a great demographic play with the right product portfolio - has a ton of approvals coming up
55.81
new
04/03/07
- next day close
56.67
+1.54
04/13/07
- favorite drug stock
58.49
+4.80
04/30/07
- we saw profit taking after good qtr - a steal on the pullback
56.62
+1.45
11/30/07
- like it
57.51
+3.05
05/19/08
- cheap with a lot of catalysts
55.05
-1.36
06/11/08
- would buy more at 52
53.50
-4.14
08/22/08
- is dynamite - is restructuring & saving money - is best acting drug stock - would buy on weakness
- the best gold stock to buy right now - gold is breaking out & goes much higher - it has the largest gold reserves in the industry - co is unhedged so it can take full advantage of higher prices - see gold possibly going to 1000/oz - new mines will lower cash costs - co will blow away the numbers - see stock going to 50
- would put it in your portfolio as a hedge against inflation - don't get tired of it if it continues to flatline - buy it as an "insurance" stock - unhedged production allows it to benefit from increases in the spot price of gold
- air transport services provider for DHL (98% of co's business) - a way to play growth in cargo shipment growth - they don't pay for the fuel - 1 1/2 thumbs up!
- drug co in clinical trials for 2 potentially blockbuster drugs (SEPR $20mm investor) - ACP 103 & ACP 104 - believed to be better versions of leading anti-psychotic drugs without the side effects (both do multi $billions of sales/yr) - results of Phase II trials for each will be announced this year - ACP 103 for Parkinson's this qtr - if all the trials fail maybe 3 point downside - if any of them win - could see 50!
- now is the time to buy the stock - trades on expectations that one of its drugs in pipeline will work - has pulled back - has 2 drugs for schizophrenia & one for Parkinson's - any one would be a big win - but they won't come to market until 2009 - expect good data this year - will get better analyst coverage - has milestone payments coming in over the next 3-6 mos - may get partners 2nd or 3rd qtr as good news comes out - must buy early - ACP 104 should be a blockbuster - has huge market - stock is bottoming - be in for the ride up - a trade only
- coal stocks are cheap - coal competes directly with natural gas as fuel - stocks came down as natural gas prices dropped recently - now that gas prices have rallied coal will follow - must buy the large cos where supply interruptions are not significant - co is #2 coal producer - mines low sulphur and low ash coal that is more easily marketed - other energy cos like XOM and BHP maybe interested in diversifying into coal - co would be an attractive target
34.70
new
12/06/07
- it's time to sell the coals - the energy bill pending in Congress will make these stocks untouchable going forward
- a buy - will keep going up as oil prices stay high
53.03
new
02/14/08
- next day close
51.57
-2.75
03/31/08
- need a McCain win to keep
43.50
-17.97
04/02/08
- is the most unhedged coal producer - can benefit from expected price increases as coal prices go higher - CEO interviewed: coal supplies 50% of US electricity - the world keeps using more coal - global supply is in deficit - co supplies low sulphur coal that meets EPA standards - Cramer says it's the cheapest stock in the group - triple buy
- recommend staying in defensive stocks for 2 more mos - like cos that have products to replace body parts or make them more attractive - co makes products to treat the eyes - but like it for its specialty contact lenses (vs BOL that has problems)
- could be the next Foster Wheeler (see FWLT) - new IPO should have gone higher after release given strength in infrastructure sector - is international in scope (China, Middle East) - backlog (key metric) is up 63% yr/yr ($3.1b) - funds want exposure in sector after run in other similar stocks - should be 25 now
21.00
new
11/15/07
- has little competition - stock is down from its high - its largest competitor, Washington Group, just got bought by URS - stock is now a scarce play in the sector but is not getting much attention - is worth buying here
- good outsourcer - announced good quarter after close
29.68
+15.22
01/09/06
- stock is so right - goes up another 6!
31.06
+20.57
08/07/06
- bullish
28.80
+11.80
10/03/06
- reiterate buy!
30.93
+20.07
01/16/07
- is the best U.S. based global outsourcing play - consulting business has strong growth (12.8%) - uses cross-selling to grow outsourcing sales - also like Infosys (INFY) equally in sector
37.10
+44.02
03/23/07
- reports after the close Tues - expect upside surprise
