SEPTEMBER 05, 2008 - The Fed will not raise rates after today's employment report that showed unemployment rising to 6.1% - there will be a call for them to lower rates now. Would continue buying recommended banks and brokers. The July 15 lows of banking and consumer stocks will hold - commodity stocks will go lower but think natural gas has bottomed. It may be getting time to buy the semis (SOX) that hit a five year low today. Oil has not bottomed yet.
2008 Presidential candidates will now be pandering to Iowa - stock is 2nd choice (MOS 1st - see MOS) in playing the primaries - candidates wil be pushing corn & ethanol - in 2005-6 only 14% of corn was used for ethanol - estimates for 2007-8 expect that to rise to 25% - corn prices have risen 45% - more farmers will start to plant corn - the corn yield must be raised - with fertilizer - new corn farming methods require more fertilizer - nitrogen (used in fertilizer) is showing supply/demand imbalance - will cause prices to rise - buy now & sell into the 2008 Iowa primary
is not keeping pace with the other fertilizer plays - bought UAP Holdings (large competitor) with an issuance of stock - expect earnings will be significantly higher as a result in 2009 - fertilizer prices are going higher for the next 2 years - has a whole lot higher to go
65.63
+109.48%
02/26/08
the selloff today in the agriculture stocks because Cargill cancelled construction of an ethanol plant is a buying opportunity as the world famine issue will continue to drive profits in the sector - AGU is one of the five "ag" horsemen
74.07
+136.42%
03/20/08
a buy here
61.31
+95.69%
04/02/08
just going to sit - don't buy - prefer POT
62.72
+100.19%
04/23/08
co will benefit from a Democratic presidential victory by either candidate because of their commitment to increase biofuels
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