NOVEMBER 21, 2008 (Dow 8046, up 494) - Would lighten up next week if the rally continues. Stocks will continue to be sold simply because as an asset class they are easiest to sell to meet obligations, like redemptions. Would not short the coals down here.
think gas drops to $3.50/gal - UPS is a good way to play it - believe they willl be able to beat their conservative guidance now that was based on oil at $140/bbl - the stock rallied after the lowered guidance (last Tuesday) signalling a bottom - in the last qtr fuel costs were up 67% yr/yr but see relief coming - they won't drop the fuel surcharge for about 2 mos after the gas price drop - new labor agreement effective Aug 1st will lower wage costs ($645M over 5 years) - its 10 yr delivery agreement with DHL could result in another $1B of revenue - has a 2.9% yield & an aggressive buyback program (has 12% of the stock authorized to buy back) - supply chain business grew at 51% last qtr - the stock is finally right
61.59
0.00%
07/29/08
next day close
63.61
+3.28%
09/02/08
is THE play on the drop in oil prices - has its act together now
65.01
+5.55%
09/04/08
should continue to be bought into the lower gasoline prices
64.16
+4.17%
09/10/08
Fedex (FDX) just raised guidance by 36% because of falling fuel prices - think UPS goes much higher
66.69
+8.28%
09/12/08
will benefit as oil goes below $90/bbl
68.60
+11.38%
10/07/08
recommending it
59.19
-3.90%
11/11/08
is a buy here with lower gas prices - the earnings might be terrible but you have to look thru the valley
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